Cambridge Journal of Economics Advance Access originally published online on June 6, 2005
Cambridge Journal of Economics 2006 30(2):163-180; doi:10.1093/cje/bei051
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Article |
Inflation and growth in South Africa
* University of South Africa
Address for correspondence: email hodged{at}unisa.ac.za
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between inflation and growth in South Africa. Two main issues are addressed: do tests of the South African data support the findings of cross-section studies that inflation has a negative effect on growth over the longer term? and, can higher growth be gained at the cost of higher inflation in the short run? The findings are that inflation drags down growth in South Africa over the longer term, and that, in the short run, growth above its trend requires accelerating inflation. Thus, for growth to be pulled substantially above its present low trend, inflation targeting in South Africa would have to be abandoned. However, this would be counterproductive over the longer term, once the negative relationship between inflation and growth manifests itself.
Key Words: Inflation Growth South Africa Long run versus short run Trade-off
JEL classifications: E31, E32, E61, O40, O55
Manuscript received March 1, 2004; final version received August 23, 2004.