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Cambridge Journal of Economics 28:489-504 (2004)
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 28, No. 4, © Cambridge Political Economy Society 2004; all rights reserved

The future of public pensions in the OECD

Christian E. Weller*

Address for correspondence: Center for American Progress, 805 15th Street NW, Washington DC, 2005, USA; email: cweller{at}americanprogress.org

Demographic changes are often presumed to put the future of public pensions in jeopardy. However, public pension finances should be sensitive to employment, wage and inequality growth. A few macroeconomic simulations show that, given modest assumptions about long-term employment and wage growth, the selected OECD countries could continue to pay for public pensions. In particular, policies that can help to improve employment growth could be useful everywhere. Obstacles to public pensions are more likely to arise from political developments than from economic trends.

Key Words: Public pensions • Private retirement savings • Economic and demographic determinants of pension finances • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

JEL classifications: H55; I38; J32; O57

Manuscript received December 10, 2001; final version received December 3, 2002.


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