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Cambridge Journal of Economics 27:177-190 (2003)
Copyright © 2003 Cambridge Political Economy Society

Article

Innovation and social probable knowledge

Marco Crocco

*Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Address for correspondence: Marco Crocco, FACE-Departamento de Economic, via Cartiba 832, 8° Andar, Sala 2, centro belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil 30 170 120; email: crocco{at}cedeplar.ufmg.br

Abstract

In this paper, some elements of Keynes's theory of probability are used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation. Based on work done elsewhere, it is argued that this process can be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertainty about how to sort out a technological problem. Expanding the concepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to deal with this kind of uncertainty, we argue that the concepts of social weight of argument and social probable knowledge can be very helpful in understanding the process of diffusion of an innovation.

Key Words: Diffusion of innovations • Conventions • Knowledge • Social knowledge • Social structure


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