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Cambridge Journal of Economics 26:441-459 (2002)
Copyright © 2002 Cambridge Political Economy Society
Article |
The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth
University of Kent at Canterbury.
Address for correspondence: Professor A. P. Thirlwall. Department of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NP, UK; email: A.P.Thirlwall{at}ukc.ac.uk
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to estimate the sensitivity of the natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for 15 OECD countries over the period 196195, on the hypothesis that the natural rate of growth is not exogenously given. To do this, we estimate the natural rate of growth and, then, how it changes when the actual growth rate is different from the natural rate. As a side test of the endogeneity hypothesis, we also test for the direction of causality between national output and factor inputs for the same set of countries. Our results support the idea that the natural rate of growth is not independent of the actual rate of growth and bring to the fore the importance of focusing on demand as well as supply for an understanding of long-run growthrate differences between countries.
Key Words: Natural rate of growth Actual rate of growth Endogeneity Causality Inputs Output
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